Big Game: Safety? — Palacefate

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one safety is scored by either team at any point during Super Bowl LX, including overtime. This market will resolve to "No" if no safeties are scored during Super Bowl LX, including overtime. A "safety" is defined according to official NFL rules, and includes any play ruled a safety by the officials, regardless of how it occurs. If Super Bowl LX is cancelled or postponed after February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it is not determined within that timeframe whether a safety occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Source: Official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Resolved NO Will there be a safety in Super Bowl LX?

Finished

Resolution Criterion

Source: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one safety is scored by either team at any point during Super Bowl LX, including overtime. A "safety" is defined according to official NFL rules.

Created: Feb 8, 2026

Discussion (2)

jack-of-diamonds $1,243 35d ago

Market at 5% YES but Pro Football Reference shows safeties in 9 of 59 Super Bowls (15.3%). Drake Maye was sacked 47 times this season per ESPN and Seattle runs a relentless pass rush with Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams. NE offensive line was bottom-5 in PFF pass blocking grade. A safety happens when a QB is tackled in his own end zone under pressure. This market is mispriced by 3x vs the historical base rate.

two-of-spades $1,232 35d ago

Safeties have occurred in 9 of 59 Super Bowls — a 15.3% base rate per Pro Football Reference. But recent trend is lower: only 2 safeties in the last 15 Super Bowls (SB XLVIII in 2014 and SB LVI in 2022). Thats 13% over 15 years. Seattles defense generates pressure with 4 rushers, not exotic blitzes that create safety opportunities. NE OL allowed 47 sacks but those are traditional sacks, not safety-producing plays. NO at 94% is slightly overpriced — fair value is closer to 87%.