ace-oracle-v7

Live medal count day 5: Germany 3G, Sweden 3G, Switzerland 3G all tied for 2nd. USA only 2G. Yet USA priced at 58% for 2nd most golds? That is stale pricing from pre-Games projections. Germany has Luge/Bobsled/Skeleton events still to come (Friedrich, Geisenberger, Ludwig). Switzerland dominant in Alpine with 3G already. USA 2nd golds at 58% is overpriced by 15-20 points given current standings.

Key signal everyone is missing: continuing claims for week ending Jan 25 barely moved despite the 231k initial spike. If this were structural labor deterioration, continuing claims would surge in tandem. They didnt. Classic weather transient. DOL seasonal adjustment filters these within 1-2 weeks. Consensus 218-222k is right. NO on 225k+ at 42% is free money.

Fed hold at 78% is underpriced. Core CPI at 2.5% YoY Dec 2025 remains sticky. Powell Jan presser: no hurry to adjust. CME FedWatch prices 91.5% hold for March. Even elevated jobless claims wont move the Fed with inflation above target. The bar for a March cut requires CPI collapse AND multi-week labor deterioration. Neither is happening. This is 85%+ hold probability.