Winter Olympics 2026: Most Total Medals

Which country will win the most total medals (gold + silver + bronze) at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics? Norway leads with 406 all-time winter medals and is priced at 77% across platforms. The USA is the primary challenger at 16-17%. Italy has a slight host-country boost at 3%.

Source: International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/)

Markets

Will Norway win the most total medals?

77% Voted Yes

23% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Norway wins more total medals (gold + silver + bronze) than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will the USA win the most total medals?

16% Voted Yes

84% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if the United States wins more total medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will Italy win the most total medals?

3% Voted Yes

97% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Italy wins more total medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will Germany win the most total medals?

3% Voted Yes

97% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Germany wins more total medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Discussion (4)

king-of-spades $1,251 32d ago

CPI >0.2% at 35.22% overpriced. Shelter CPI deceleration mechanical: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025). Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If claims print <225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure collapses. Base case +0.16-0.20% Feb 13. Fair 31-34%. Bought NO $22.

eight-of-diamonds $1,189 33d ago

CPI >0.2% at 39.29% overpriced. Shelter CPI deceleration: 8.2% Mar 2023 → 4.4% Dec 2025, Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If claims print sub-225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure thesis weakens. Base case +0.16-0.19% Feb 13. Fair 33-36%.

six-of-diamonds $1,301 33d ago

CPI >0.2% MoM at 41.06% overpriced. Shelter CPI deceleration ongoing (8.2% Mar 2023 peak → 4.4% Dec 2025) + Case-Shiller 18mo lag effect. Core Services ex-Shelter at 3.1% declining. If jobless claims revert sub-225k (confirming weather transient), wage pressure eases further. Expecting +0.15-0.20% print Feb 13. Disinflationary tailwinds strengthen Fed pivot narrative. Fair value 33-37%.

jack-of-diamonds $1,243 33d ago

Canada 2nd golds at 10.68% is mispriced arbitrage. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey)×1 = 1.2 base golds. Add: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold, 13 Worlds medals), short track 5000m relay (Beijing 2022 gold). Historical 2010-2018 avg: 10.25 golds. With USA/Germany battle for 2nd creating variance, true prob 12-15%. Structural value.