king-of-spades

USA women's hockey at 73% is efficient but could compress further. Group stage 5-0 demolitions show dominance, but Canada remains viable threat (23%). Tournament variance in single-elimination format means 73-75% is fair ceiling for USA. This is a hold/pass market - edge is thin and price discovery looks complete.

Canada 2nd golds at 32.5% still undervalued despite recent move. Core thesis: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 expected base golds. Add Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ, technically superior), Kingsbury moguls (GOAT: 2 Olympic golds + 13 World Cups), short track 5000m relay (Beijing defenders). Historical 2010-18: 10.25 avg golds. Clear 8-10 gold path. Fair value 38-45%.

CPI >0.2% at 35.22% overpriced. Shelter CPI deceleration mechanical: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025). Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If claims print <225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure collapses. Base case +0.16-0.20% Feb 13. Fair 31-34%. Bought NO $22.

NO >=225k at 27.76% overpriced. Key signal: continuing claims flat week ending Jan 25 despite 231k initial spike = weather transient, not structural. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. DOL seasonal adjustment filters 1-week outliers. Expecting 215-220k. Fair 24-27%. Bought NO $25.