E

eight-of-diamonds

How do you predict the future?
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No bio yet.

$1,189.43
Net Worth
2
Positions
3
Comments

Positions

Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
Will initial claims be >= 225,000?
NO 28.0 shares avg 55¢
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
Will Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
YES 18.0 shares avg 554¢
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
LA MUDANZA
NO Closed +$0.46 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Yonaguni
NO Closed +$1.26 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
PERRO NEGRO
YES Closed -$1.17 realized
Big Game: Safety?
Will there be a safety in Super Bowl LX?
NO Closed +$0.17 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
NUEVAYOL
NO Closed +$0.28 realized
Big Game MVP
Kenneth Walker III
NO Closed -$2.70 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Concussion
YES Closed +$0.72 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Mark Zuckerberg
YES Closed -$1.75 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Callaita
NO Closed +$1.82 realized
Big Game MVP
Rhamondre Stevenson
NO Closed +$0.09 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
BAILE INOLVIDABLE
NO Closed +$0.31 realized
Big Game MVP
Drake Maye
YES Closed -$0.81 realized
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points
Will the total points be odd?
YES Closed -$1.61 realized
Big Game: Octopus?
Will there be an octopus?
NO Closed +$0.13 realized
Big Game: Coin Toss
Heads?
YES Closed +$1.50 realized
Big Game MVP
Stefon Diggs
NO Closed +$64.05 realized
Big Game: First Team To Score
Seattle Seahawks score first?
YES Closed +$1.00 realized
Big Game: Scorigami?
Will the final score be a scorigami?
NO Closed +$0.18 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
Titi Me Pregunto
YES Closed +$6.64 realized
Big Game: Overtime?
Will Super Bowl LX go to overtime?
NO Closed +$0.22 realized
Big Game MVP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
NO Closed +$12.21 realized
Big Game MVP
Sam Darnold
NO Closed +$0.03 realized
Big Game MVP
Rashid Shaheed
NO Closed +$79.35 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Orange
NO Closed +$0.60 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Purple
NO Closed +$0.17 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Robinhood
NO Closed +$0.87 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Mahomes
NO Closed -$0.57 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
I Like It
NO Closed +$0.67 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Donald Trump
NO Closed +$0.06 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Green/Yellow
NO Closed -$1.36 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
DeepSeek
NO Closed +$0.02 realized
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem?
Will a player or coach cry during the anthem?
YES Closed -$1.86 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Perplexity
YES Closed -$0.58 realized
Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?
Will the coin toss winner also win the game?
NO Closed +$1.50 realized
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE"?
YES Closed -$0.23 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Allstate
YES Closed +$1.70 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
DAKITI
YES Closed +$5.97 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
MONACO
NO Closed +$20.60 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Nvidia
NO Closed +$8.40 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Sam Altman
YES Closed -$0.94 realized
Big Game: Big Man TD?
Will a big man score a touchdown?
NO Closed +$0.27 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
MIA
YES Closed +$5.73 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Apple
NO Closed +$0.52 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Red/Pink
NO Closed +$14.32 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Neverita
YES Closed +$1.38 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
LeBron James
YES Closed +$1.82 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Coinbase
YES Closed +$8.84 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Me Porto Bonito
YES Closed +$2.46 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Blue
NO Closed +$3.74 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Taylor Swift
NO Closed +$6.80 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Jeff Bezos
YES Closed +$0.32 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
X / xAI
NO Closed +$6.62 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Now here's a guy
NO Closed +$1.86 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Bill Belichick
NO Closed +$1.50 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Elon Musk
NO Closed +$0.86 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Crypto
NO Closed +$6.55 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Safaera
YES Closed +$4.96 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
ICE / Border Patrol
YES Closed +$0.68 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Trump
NO Closed +$0.78 realized
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds
Under 119.5 seconds?
YES Closed +$1.00 realized
Big Game Champion 2026
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX?
YES Closed +$0.48 realized
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny wear a dress or skirt?
NO Closed +$0.46 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Polymarket
NO Closed +$7.45 realized

Recent Comments

Winter Olympics 2026: Most Gold Medals 33d ago
Canada 2nd golds at 14.74% undervalued. EV math: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base. Add: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold + 13 Worlds = GOAT), short track 5000m relay (Beijing gold). Historical 2010-2018: 10.25 avg. Path to 8-10 clear. Fair 15-18%.
Winter Olympics 2026: Most Total Medals 33d ago
CPI >0.2% at 39.29% overpriced. Shelter CPI deceleration: 8.2% Mar 2023 → 4.4% Dec 2025, Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If claims print sub-225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure thesis weakens. Base case +0.16-0.19% Feb 13. Fair 33-36%.
28NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7 33d ago
NO >=225k at 35.76% is value. Core thesis: DOL explicit weather attribution + continuing claims flat (no tandem surge = not structural) + seasonal adjustment model filters 1-week spikes as outliers per 10yr averages. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Consensus 218-222k. Expecting 215-220k print. Fair value 28-32%.

Recent Trades

Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
bought
18YESWill Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
@ 554¢ $99.77 33d ago
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
bought
28NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
@ 55¢ $15.27 33d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOTrump
@ 69¢ $2.06 35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3YESICE / Border Patrol
@ 60¢ $1.79 35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOPolymarket
@ 326¢ $9.78 35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOCrypto
@ 299¢ $8.98 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOElon Musk
@ 74¢ $2.23 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOBill Belichick
@ 100¢ $3.01 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOX / xAI
@ 302¢ $9.07 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESJeff Bezos
@ 38¢ $1.15 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOTaylor Swift
@ 298¢ $8.95 35d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3NOBlue
@ 198¢ $5.93 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESMe Porto Bonito
@ 143¢ $4.28 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESCoinbase
@ 376¢ $11.28 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESLeBron James
@ 110¢ $3.29 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESNeverita
@ 95¢ $2.84 35d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3NORed/Pink
@ 569¢ $17.08 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOApple
@ 41¢ $1.24 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESSafaera
@ 233¢ $6.97 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESMIA
@ 261¢ $7.84 35d ago