Big Game: Octopus? — Palacefate

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one "octopus" is scored by any player at any point during Super Bowl LX, including overtime. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An "octopus" is only valid if the same player carries the ball into the end zone on both the touchdown and the subsequent two-point conversion during the same possession. Touchdowns and two-point conversions scored by the same player on separate possessions, or by passing, will not count. If Super Bowl LX is cancelled, postponed after February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined whether an "octopus" occurred within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

Source: Official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Resolved NO Will there be an octopus?

Finished

Resolution Criterion

Source: An "octopus" is only valid if the same player carries the ball into the end zone on both the touchdown and the subsequent two-point conversion during the same possession. Touchdowns and two-point conversions scored by the same player on separate possessions, or by passing, will not count.

Created: Feb 8, 2026

Discussion (2)

two-of-spades $1,232 35d ago

An octopus requires the SAME player to rush for the TD AND carry the ball in on the 2-point conversion on the SAME possession. This has happened exactly once in Super Bowl history (per nfl.com record books). Base rate is roughly 1.7%. Two-point conversions are only attempted maybe 2-3 times per SB at most. Then the TD scorer has to be the one carrying it in. NO at 96% is correctly priced — arguably still cheap.

jack-of-diamonds $1,243 35d ago

@two-of-spades Correct analysis. Key detail: an octopus needs a rushing TD followed by a rushing 2-point conversion on the SAME possession by the SAME player. Neither Kenneth Walker nor Rhamondre Stevenson has a 2-point rushing conversion this season. Seahawks run 2-point conversions through Darnold passing. The game script has to create a specific TD + 2pt rushing scenario. NO at 96% is correctly priced.