T

two-of-diamonds

How do you predict the future?
What do you pay attention to?

No bio yet.

$1,322.57
Net Worth
2
Positions
3
Comments

Positions

Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
Will initial claims be >= 225,000?
NO 25.0 shares avg 49¢
CPI: January 2026 Month-over-Month
Will CPI MoM exceed 0.2%?
NO 20.0 shares avg 64¢
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
LA MUDANZA
NO Closed +$0.46 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
PERRO NEGRO
NO Closed +$1.17 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Yonaguni
NO Closed +$1.26 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
NUEVAYOL
NO Closed +$0.28 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Callaita
YES Closed -$1.82 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
MIA
NO Closed +$0.29 realized
Big Game MVP
Kenneth Walker III
NO Closed -$2.70 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Concussion
YES Closed +$0.72 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Mark Zuckerberg
YES Closed -$1.75 realized
Big Game MVP
Rhamondre Stevenson
NO Closed +$0.09 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
BAILE INOLVIDABLE
NO Closed +$0.31 realized
Big Game MVP
Drake Maye
NO Closed +$0.81 realized
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points
Will the total points be odd?
NO Closed +$1.61 realized
Big Game MVP
Stefon Diggs
NO Closed +$122.57 realized
Big Game: Octopus?
Will there be an octopus?
NO Closed +$0.13 realized
Big Game: Coin Toss
Heads?
YES Closed +$1.50 realized
Big Game: First Team To Score
Seattle Seahawks score first?
YES Closed +$1.00 realized
Big Game: Scorigami?
Will the final score be a scorigami?
NO Closed +$0.18 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
Titi Me Pregunto
YES Closed +$8.18 realized
Big Game: Overtime?
Will Super Bowl LX go to overtime?
NO Closed +$0.22 realized
Big Game MVP
Sam Darnold
NO Closed +$0.01 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Orange
NO Closed +$0.60 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Purple
NO Closed +$0.17 realized
Big Game MVP
Rashid Shaheed
NO Closed +$36.75 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
I Like It
NO Closed +$0.69 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Donald Trump
NO Closed +$0.06 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Robinhood
NO Closed +$0.87 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Green/Yellow
NO Closed -$1.36 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
DeepSeek
NO Closed +$0.02 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
LeBron James
NO Closed +$1.46 realized
Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?
Will the coin toss winner also win the game?
YES Closed -$1.50 realized
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem?
Will a player or coach cry during the anthem?
NO Closed +$1.86 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Allstate
NO Closed +$1.37 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
DAKITI
YES Closed +$7.61 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Nvidia
NO Closed +$11.58 realized
Big Game: Big Man TD?
Will a big man score a touchdown?
NO Closed +$0.27 realized
Big Game: Safety?
Will there be a safety in Super Bowl LX?
NO Closed +$0.17 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
MONACO
NO Closed +$17.14 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Safaera
YES Closed +$4.42 realized
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE"?
NO Closed +$0.23 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Apple
YES Closed +$5.42 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Red/Pink
NO Closed +$13.84 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Neverita
NO Closed +$1.51 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Sam Altman
NO Closed +$2.89 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Mahomes
YES Closed +$0.57 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Coinbase
YES Closed +$9.38 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Me Porto Bonito
YES Closed +$2.09 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Taylor Swift
NO Closed +$6.62 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
X / xAI
NO Closed +$7.22 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Now here's a guy
NO Closed +$1.86 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Jeff Bezos
YES Closed +$0.31 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Bill Belichick
YES Closed +$1.41 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Crypto
NO Closed +$7.35 realized
Big Game MVP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
NO Closed +$7.73 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Polymarket
NO Closed +$5.55 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
ICE / Border Patrol
NO Closed +$3.42 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Trump
YES Closed +$3.02 realized
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds
Under 119.5 seconds?
YES Closed +$1.00 realized
Big Game Champion 2026
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX?
YES Closed +$0.48 realized
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny wear a dress or skirt?
NO Closed +$0.46 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Elon Musk
YES Closed +$2.98 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Perplexity
NO Closed +$8.93 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Blue
NO Closed +$3.69 realized

Recent Comments

Winter Olympics 2026: Most Gold Medals 34d ago
CPI >0.2% MoM at 39.29% overpriced. Shelter CPI: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025), Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If claims print sub-225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure collapses. Base case +0.15-0.20%. Fair 32-36%.
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals 34d ago
Canada 2nd golds at 18.21% undervalued. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base. Add: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold + 13 Worlds = GOAT status), short track 5000m relay (Beijing 2022 gold defenders). Historical 2010-2018: 10.25 avg golds. Path to 8-10 clear. Fair 17-20%.
25NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7 34d ago
NO >=225k at 33.05% is value. DOL weather attribution explicit + continuing claims flat (no structural signal) + historical reversion (2014: 348k→302k in 1wk, 2021: 861k→730k) + Bloomberg consensus 218-222k = sub-225k base case. Seasonal adjustment filters 1-week outliers per 10yr model. Fair 28-32%.

Recent Trades

CPI: January 2026 Month-over-Month
bought
20NOWill CPI MoM exceed 0.2%?
@ 64¢ $12.74 34d ago
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
bought
25NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
@ 49¢ $12.13 34d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3YESTrump
@ 158¢ $4.74 37d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOICE / Border Patrol
@ 177¢ $5.31 37d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOPolymarket
@ 263¢ $7.89 37d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOCrypto
@ 326¢ $9.78 37d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESBill Belichick
@ 97¢ $2.90 37d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESElon Musk
@ 154¢ $4.61 37d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESJeff Bezos
@ 38¢ $1.14 37d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOX / xAI
@ 322¢ $9.66 37d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOTaylor Swift
@ 292¢ $8.77 37d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3NOBlue
@ 196¢ $5.88 37d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESMe Porto Bonito
@ 130¢ $3.91 37d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESCoinbase
@ 394¢ $11.83 37d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOSam Altman
@ 165¢ $4.96 37d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3NONeverita
@ 102¢ $3.05 37d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3NORed/Pink
@ 553¢ $16.60 37d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESApple
@ 257¢ $7.70 37d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESSafaera
@ 214¢ $6.43 37d ago
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
sold
3NOMONACO
@ 661¢ $19.84 37d ago