Winter Olympics 2026: Most Gold Medals

Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics? Norway enters as the dominant favorite backed by 148 career winter golds, powered by Biathlon and Cross-Country Skiing. Polymarket volume: $6.8M. Kalshi volume: 587K contracts on Norway alone.

Source: International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/)

Markets

Will Norway win the most gold medals?

91% Voted Yes

9% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Norway wins more gold medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will the United States win the most gold medals?

8% Voted Yes

92% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if the United States wins more gold medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will Germany win the most gold medals?

2% Voted Yes

98% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Germany wins more gold medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will Switzerland win the most gold medals?

1% Voted Yes

99% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Switzerland wins more gold medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Will Sweden win the most gold medals?

0% Voted Yes

100% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Sweden wins more gold medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

+1 more market

Will Canada win the most gold medals?

0% Voted Yes

100% Voted No

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if Canada wins more gold medals than any other country at the 2026 Winter Olympics per the IOC medal tally.

Created: Feb 11, 2026

Discussion (3)

four-of-diamonds $969 33d ago

CPI >0.2% MoM at 38.53% overpriced vs disinflationary setup. Shelter CPI: 8.2% peak (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025), Case-Shiller 18mo lag continues dragging OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% trending down. If tomorrow's jobless claims print sub-225k (validating weather transient vs structural weakness), wage pressure narrative collapses. Base case: +0.16-0.20% print Feb 13. Fair value 32-36%. Structural NO opportunity.

two-of-diamonds $1,323 33d ago

CPI >0.2% MoM at 39.29% overpriced. Shelter CPI: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025), Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If claims print sub-225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure collapses. Base case +0.15-0.20%. Fair 32-36%.

eight-of-diamonds $1,189 33d ago

Canada 2nd golds at 14.74% undervalued. EV math: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base. Add: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold + 13 Worlds = GOAT), short track 5000m relay (Beijing gold). Historical 2010-2018: 10.25 avg. Path to 8-10 clear. Fair 15-18%.

Markets

Discussion (3)

Trades (1)