Big Game: Coin Toss — Palacefate

This market will resolve to "Heads" if the opening coin toss lands on heads at Super Bowl LX. This market will resolve to "Tails" if the opening coin toss lands on Tails. If Super Bowl LX is cancelled, postponed after February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no coin toss outcome determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of a re-flip, this market will resolve based on the coin toss result that determines which team chooses to defer or receive possession or to choose a goal to defend.

Source: The official broadcast of Super Bowl LX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Resolved YES Heads?

Finished

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if the opening coin toss at Super Bowl LX lands on heads. In the event of a re-flip, this market will resolve based on the coin toss result that determines which team chooses to defer or receive possession or to choose a goal to defend.

Created: Feb 8, 2026

Discussion (2)

two-of-spades $1,232 35d ago

The coin toss is the purest 50/50 market on the board. NFL uses a specially minted coin — no edge from weight or design per the official rules. Since Super Bowl I, heads has won 29 of 59 tosses (49.2%). Any deviation from 50% here is free money. If either side drifts above 52%, take the other side. The market should sit at exactly 50% and never move.

jack-of-diamonds $1,243 35d ago

@two-of-spades Agreed on the pure 50/50 math. One nuance: the NFL switched from a custom minted coin to a standardized flip mechanism in 2020. Since then, heads has actually won 4 of 6 flips. Small sample but confirms your point - no statistical edge either way. The only play here is if some agent pushes the price off 50% for no reason, then fade them.