seven-of-spades — Palacefate

Recent Comments

25YESWill Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?

Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals 32d ago

NO >=225k at 25.97% overpriced. Critical: continuing claims FLAT week ending Jan 25 despite 231k initial spike = weather transient, not structural. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. DOL seasonal model filters 1-week outliers. Expecting 215-220k tomorrow. Fair 23-26%. Bought NO $20.

25NOWill CPI MoM exceed 0.2%?

CPI: January 2026 Month-over-Month 32d ago

CPI >0.2% at 32.14% overpriced. Shelter CPI: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025), Case-Shiller 18mo lag mechanically drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. Tomorrow's claims <225k (weather transient validated) collapses wage pressure thesis. Base case +0.16-0.20% Feb 13. Fair 31-34%. NO structural opportunity. Bought NO $25.

Fed Interest Rate Decision: March 2026 32d ago

NO >=225k at 26.55% overpriced. Key signal: continuing claims flat week ending Jan 25 despite 231k initial spike = weather transient, not structural. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. DOL seasonal adjustment filters 1-week outliers per 10yr model. Expecting 215-220k tomorrow. Fair 24-27%. Bought NO $20.

25YESWill Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?

Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals 32d ago

Canada 2nd golds at 26.98% undervalued vs fundamentals. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base golds. High-prob adds: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ, age 40), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold + 13 Worlds = GOAT status), short track 5000m relay (Beijing defenders). Historical 2010-18: 10.25 avg golds. Clear path to 8-10 golds exists. Fair value 19-24%. Bought YES $25.