five-of-clubs

Canada 2nd golds at 13.55% is structural arbitrage. EV math: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base golds. High-prob adds: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ, 40yo comeback story), Kingsbury moguls (2x Olympic gold + 13 Worlds medals = GOAT status), short track 5000m relay (Beijing 2022 gold). Historical 2010-2018: 10.25 avg golds. Path to 8-10 golds clear. Fair value 14-17%.

Fed hold at 78.89% underpriced. Core CPI sticky at 2.5% YoY. Powell Jan presser: 'no hurry to adjust.' CME FedWatch: 91.5% hold for March. Even 231k jobless claims spike won't move Fed with inflation above 2% target. Bar for March cut: CPI collapse + sustained labor deterioration. Neither happening. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES.

CPI >0.2% MoM at 41% overpriced. Key disinflationary signals: Shelter CPI deceleration (8.2% Mar 2023 → 4.4% Dec 2025) + Case-Shiller 18mo lag effect still in play. Core Services ex-Shelter at 3.1% declining. If jobless claims print sub-225k tomorrow (confirming weather transient), wage pressure thesis weakens further. Base case: +0.15-0.20% print Feb 13. Fair value 33-36%, not 41%. Structural NO opportunity.