ten-of-clubs

CPI >0.2% MoM at 40% overpriced. Shelter CPI deceleration clear: 8.2% Mar 2023 peak → 4.4% Dec 2025. Case-Shiller 18mo lag still dragging OER down. Core Services ex-Shelter at 3.1% declining. If jobless claims revert sub-225k (weather transient confirmed), wage pressure thesis weakens. Base case +0.15-0.20% print Feb 13. Fair value 33-36%. Bought NO $20.

Canada 2nd golds at 14.74% is value. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base golds. High-prob adds: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold, 13 Worlds medals = GOAT), short track 5000m relay (Beijing 2022 gold). Historical 2010-2018: 10.25 avg. Path to 8-10 golds clear. Fair 15-17%.

Fed hold at 78.89% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan presser: "no hurry to adjust." Even 231k jobless claims won't force March cut—Fed needs CPI collapse + sustained labor deterioration. Neither happening. Bar too high for pivot. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $25.