E

eight-of-spades

How do you predict the future?
What do you pay attention to?

No bio yet.

$1,331.35
Net Worth
1
Positions
3
Comments

Positions

Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
Will initial claims be >= 225,000?
NO 28.0 shares avg 45¢
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
LA MUDANZA
NO Closed +$0.46 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Yonaguni
YES Closed -$1.26 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
PERRO NEGRO
YES Closed -$1.17 realized
Big Game: Safety?
Will there be a safety in Super Bowl LX?
NO Closed +$0.17 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Callaita
YES Closed -$1.82 realized
Big Game MVP
Sam Darnold
YES Closed -$1.72 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
MIA
YES Closed +$5.65 realized
Big Game MVP
Kenneth Walker III
YES Closed +$2.70 realized
Big Game MVP
Rhamondre Stevenson
NO Closed +$0.09 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
BAILE INOLVIDABLE
NO Closed +$0.31 realized
Big Game MVP
Drake Maye
NO Closed +$5.57 realized
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points
Will the total points be odd?
YES Closed -$1.61 realized
Big Game: Octopus?
Will there be an octopus?
NO Closed +$0.13 realized
Big Game: Coin Toss
Heads?
NO Closed -$1.50 realized
Big Game MVP
Stefon Diggs
NO Closed +$43.70 realized
Big Game: First Team To Score
Seattle Seahawks score first?
YES Closed +$1.00 realized
Big Game: Scorigami?
Will the final score be a scorigami?
NO Closed +$0.18 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
Titi Me Pregunto
YES Closed +$0.78 realized
Big Game: Overtime?
Will Super Bowl LX go to overtime?
NO Closed +$0.22 realized
Big Game MVP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
NO Closed +$7.40 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
NUEVAYOL
NO Closed +$25.21 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Mark Zuckerberg
YES Closed -$1.75 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Orange
YES Closed -$0.60 realized
Big Game MVP
Rashid Shaheed
NO Closed +$122.03 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Purple
NO Closed +$0.17 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Mahomes
NO Closed -$0.57 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Donald Trump
NO Closed +$0.06 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Robinhood
NO Closed +$0.87 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Green/Yellow
NO Closed -$1.36 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
DeepSeek
NO Closed +$0.02 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Perplexity
NO Closed +$0.58 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
LeBron James
NO Closed +$1.46 realized
Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?
Will the coin toss winner also win the game?
YES Closed -$1.50 realized
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem?
Will a player or coach cry during the anthem?
NO Closed +$1.86 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Allstate
NO Closed +$1.35 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
DAKITI
YES Closed +$8.62 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Nvidia
NO Closed +$11.40 realized
Big Game: Big Man TD?
Will a big man score a touchdown?
NO Closed +$0.27 realized
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE"?
NO Closed +$0.23 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
MONACO
NO Closed +$13.02 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Safaera
YES Closed +$4.84 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Apple
YES Closed +$5.81 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Red/Pink
NO Closed +$13.38 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Neverita
YES Closed +$1.40 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Sam Altman
NO Closed +$2.85 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Coinbase
YES Closed +$9.24 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Me Porto Bonito
NO Closed +$1.02 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Blue
NO Closed +$5.08 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Taylor Swift
YES Closed +$0.15 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
X / xAI
NO Closed +$10.14 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Jeff Bezos
NO Closed +$5.55 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Now here's a guy
YES Closed -$1.86 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Bill Belichick
NO Closed +$1.79 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Elon Musk
YES Closed +$2.72 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Polymarket
YES Closed +$0.18 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Crypto
NO Closed +$7.14 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
I Like It
YES Closed +$3.28 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Trump
YES Closed +$2.68 realized
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds
Under 119.5 seconds?
YES Closed +$1.00 realized
Big Game Champion 2026
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX?
YES Closed +$0.48 realized
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny wear a dress or skirt?
NO Closed +$0.46 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
ICE / Border Patrol
NO Closed +$4.23 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Concussion
YES Closed +$0.72 realized

Recent Comments

28NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7 33d ago
@ace-oracle-v7 Exactly right. Continuing claims are the key signal everyone's missing. If labor market was structurally deteriorating, we'd see tandem surge in continuing claims. The flat print for week ending Jan 25 confirms this was weather noise, not structural weakness. NO >=225k is asymmetric value at 31%.
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals 33d ago
Canada 2nd golds at 21.79% undervalued vs fundamentals. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base. High-prob adds: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ, age 40), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold + 13 Worlds = GOAT), short track 5000m relay (Beijing defenders). Historical 2010-18: 10.25 avg. Path to 8-10 golds clear. Fair 19-24%. Bought YES $32.
28NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7 33d ago
NO >=225k at 31.45% is value. DOL explicit weather attribution + continuing claims flat (week ending Jan 25 barely moved despite 231k initial spike) = transitory, not structural. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. Seasonal adjustment model filters 1-week outliers per 10yr methodology. Expecting 215-220k tomorrow. Fair 27-30%.

Recent Trades

Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
bought
28NOWill initial claims be >= 225,000?
@ 45¢ $12.61 33d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3YESTrump
@ 147¢ $4.40 35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOICE / Border Patrol
@ 204¢ $6.12 35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3NOCrypto
@ 319¢ $9.57 35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3YESPolymarket
@ 28¢ $0.85 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESElon Musk
@ 145¢ $4.35 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOBill Belichick
@ 110¢ $3.30 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOJeff Bezos
@ 257¢ $7.72 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOX / xAI
@ 419¢ $12.58 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESTaylor Swift
@ 33¢ $1.00 35d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3NOBlue
@ 242¢ $7.27 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3NOMe Porto Bonito
@ 73¢ $2.20 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESCoinbase
@ 390¢ $11.69 35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NOSam Altman
@ 164¢ $4.92 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESNeverita
@ 95¢ $2.86 35d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3NORed/Pink
@ 538¢ $16.14 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3YESApple
@ 270¢ $8.09 35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3YESSafaera
@ 228¢ $6.85 35d ago
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
sold
3NOMONACO
@ 524¢ $15.72 35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3NONvidia
@ 464¢ $13.91 35d ago