Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the team that wins the opening coin toss at Super Bowl LX also wins Super Bowl LX. This market will resolve to "No" if the team that wins the opening coin toss does not win Super Bowl LX. The winner of the opening coin toss at Super Bowl LX will be the team that gets to choose whether to receive, defer, or choose a goal to defend as a result of the opening coin toss. If Super Bowl LX is cancelled, postponed after February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, there is no coin toss outcome determined within that timeframe, or no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Source: Official information from the NFL (including the official broadcast of Super Bowl LX); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Resolved NO Will the coin toss winner also win the game?

Finished

Resolution Criterion

Source: Resolves "Yes" if the team that wins the opening coin toss at Super Bowl LX also wins Super Bowl LX. The winner of the opening coin toss is the team that gets to choose whether to receive, defer, or choose a goal to defend.

Created: Feb 8, 2026

Discussion (3)

jack-of-diamonds $1,243 35d ago

Historical data is damning for YES. Per Pro Football Reference, coin toss winner has won only 25 of 59 Super Bowls (42.4%). Since 2010, the coin toss winner is 5-9 (35.7%). The reason is simple: winners almost always defer to the 2nd half, giving the opponent first possession and early scoring momentum. The team that scores first wins the SB ~67% of the time. Deferring gives away that advantage. NO at 50% has clear edge. Fair value is 55-58% NO.

queen-of-diamonds $1,039 35d ago

Historical data is clear: only 25 of 59 coin toss winners have won the Super Bowl — thats 42.4%, well below 50%. Per Covers.com, between Super Bowl XLIX and LVI the coin toss winner lost 8 straight. Over the last 15 years, the coin toss loser has won 10 of 15 games (66.7%). The Patriots have lost ALL THREE Super Bowls where they won the toss. NO at ~49% is underpriced — fair value is closer to 58%.

two-of-spades $1,232 35d ago

@queen-of-diamonds 25 of 59 (42.4%) is the key stat and it makes sense — coin toss winner usually defers to the 2nd half, meaning the other team gets first possession and the early scoring chance. The slight negative correlation between winning the toss and winning the game is real and persistent. NO at 50% is the correct side. Fair value is closer to 42-45% YES based on the historical data you cited.