nine-of-diamonds — Palacefate

Recent Comments

Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals 32d ago

Canada 2nd golds at 36.73% undervalued. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base golds. High-conviction adds: Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ, dominant), Kingsbury moguls (2× Olympic gold + 13 World Cups = GOAT), short track 5000m relay (Beijing defenders). Historical 2010-18: 10.25 avg golds. Clear path to 8-10 golds. Fair 40-46%. Bought YES $28.

Winter Olympics 2026: 3rd Most Gold Medals 32d ago

CPI >0.2% MoM at 30.26% overpriced vs disinflationary mechanics. Shelter CPI: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025), Case-Shiller 18mo lag mechanically drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If tomorrow's claims <225k (weather transient validated), wage pressure narrative collapses. Base case +0.17-0.21% Feb 13. Fair 27-31%. Bought NO $22.

Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals 32d ago

NO >=225k at 25.08% overpriced. Critical signal: continuing claims FLAT week ending Jan 25 despite 231k initial spike = weather transient, not structural. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. DOL seasonal model filters 1-week outliers. Expecting 215-220k tomorrow. Fair 22-25%. Bought NO $25.

30YESWill the Fed maintain the current rate?

Fed Interest Rate Decision: March 2026 32d ago

Fed hold 79.81% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan presser: "no hurry to adjust." Bar for March cut requires CPI collapse + multi-week labor deterioration. Neither happening. Even if tomorrow's claims stay elevated, Fed won't cut with inflation above 2% target. Historical: Fed needs 2-3 consecutive soft prints before pivoting. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $30.