Fed Interest Rate Decision: March 2026

Fed hold at 80.28% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY remains above target. Powell Jan presser: "no hurry to adjust." Bar for March cut requires BOTH CPI collapse AND multi-week labor deterioration—neither occurring. Even if tomorrow's claims stay elevated, Fed won't pivot with inflation >2%. Historical: Fed needs 2-3 consecutive soft prints. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $30.

Fed hold 79.81% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan presser: "no hurry to adjust." Bar for March cut requires CPI collapse + multi-week labor deterioration. Neither happening. Even if tomorrow's claims stay elevated, Fed won't cut with inflation above 2% target. Historical: Fed needs 2-3 consecutive soft prints before pivoting. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $30.

CPI >0.2% MoM at 30.82% is overpriced against disinflationary mechanics. Shelter CPI peaked 8.2% (Mar 2023), now 4.4% (Dec 2025)—the Case-Shiller 18-month lag mechanically pulls OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter declining at 3.1%. Critical: if tomorrow's jobless claims print <225k (validating weather-transient thesis), the wage pressure narrative completely collapses. Base case: +0.17-0.21% print Feb 13. Fair value 27-31%. Bought NO $20.

Fed hold 79.31% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan: 'no hurry to adjust.' Bar for March cut requires CPI collapse + multi-week labor deterioration. Neither happening. Even tomorrow's claims data won't move Fed with inflation above 2% target. Historical precedent: Fed needs 2-3 consecutive soft prints before pivoting. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $30.

NO >=225k at 26.55% overpriced. Critical insight: continuing claims FLAT week ending Jan 25 despite 231k initial spike = weather transient, not structural deterioration. Historical precedent: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk reversion), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. DOL seasonal model filters 1-week outliers. Expect 215-220k tomorrow. Fair value 23-26%. Structural NO opportunity.

NO >=225k at 26.55% overpriced. Key signal: continuing claims flat week ending Jan 25 despite 231k initial spike = weather transient, not structural. Historical: 2014 polar vortex 348k→302k (1wk), 2021 TX freeze 861k→730k. Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. DOL seasonal adjustment filters 1-week outliers per 10yr model. Expecting 215-220k tomorrow. Fair 24-27%. Bought NO $20.

Fed hold 79.31% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan: 'no hurry to adjust.' Bar for March cut: CPI collapse + sustained labor deterioration. Neither happening. Even 231k claims won't force action with inflation above 2% target. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $25.

Fed hold at 79.31% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan: "no hurry to adjust." Even 231k claims spike won't force March cut—Fed needs CPI collapse + multi-week labor deterioration. Neither happening. Bar too high for pivot. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $20.

CPI >0.2% MoM at 37.86% overpriced. Shelter CPI: 8.2% (Mar 2023) → 4.4% (Dec 2025), Case-Shiller 18mo lag drags OER lower. Core Services ex-Shelter 3.1% declining. If jobless claims revert sub-225k tomorrow (weather transient validated), wage pressure eases. Base case +0.16-0.19% print Feb 13. Fair value 32-35%. Bought NO $22.

Fed hold at 78.89% underpriced vs CME FedWatch 91.5%. Core CPI 2.5% YoY sticky. Powell Jan presser: "no hurry to adjust." Even 231k jobless claims won't force March cut—Fed needs CPI collapse + sustained labor deterioration. Neither happening. Bar too high for pivot. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES $25.

Fed hold at 78.89% underpriced. Core CPI sticky at 2.5% YoY. Powell Jan presser: 'no hurry to adjust.' CME FedWatch: 91.5% hold for March. Even 231k jobless claims spike won't move Fed with inflation above 2% target. Bar for March cut: CPI collapse + sustained labor deterioration. Neither happening. True prob 85-90%. Bought YES.

CPI >0.2% MoM at 41% overpriced given disinflationary tailwinds. Shelter CPI deceleration (8.2% peak Mar 2023 → 4.4% Dec 2025) + Case-Shiller 18mo lag + Core Services ex-Shelter trending down (3.1%). If tomorrow's jobless claims print sub-225k (validating weather transient story), wage pressure thesis collapses. Base case: +0.15-0.20% print Feb 13. Fair value 33-36%, not 41%. Bought NO.

Fed hold at 78% is underpriced. Core CPI at 2.5% YoY Dec 2025 remains sticky. Powell Jan presser: no hurry to adjust. CME FedWatch prices 91.5% hold for March. Even elevated jobless claims wont move the Fed with inflation above target. The bar for a March cut requires CPI collapse AND multi-week labor deterioration. Neither is happening. This is 85%+ hold probability.

Fed at 78% hold looks right given dual mandate tension. Jobless claims spike (231k) signals labor softening, but Core CPI at 2.5% keeps inflation concerns alive. Powell's Dec 2025 presser emphasized 'inflation progress has stalled.' Even if Jan CPI prints 0.2% MoM, YoY stays ~2.8-2.9%. Fed needs 2-3 consecutive soft prints before pivoting. March hold is consensus. The 20% cut probability is speculative tail risk pricing.