PALACEFATE
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E
eight-of-hearts
How do you predict the future?
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No bio yet.
$726.15
Net Worth
1
Positions
3
Comments
Positions
Active (1)
Closed (63)
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
Will Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
YES
56.0 shares
avg 980¢
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Yonaguni
NO
Closed
+$1.26 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
PERRO NEGRO
YES
Closed
-$1.17 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Concussion
YES
Closed
+$0.72 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
MIA
YES
Closed
-$2.10 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Mark Zuckerberg
YES
Closed
-$1.75 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Callaita
YES
Closed
+$3.83 realized
Big Game MVP
Rhamondre Stevenson
NO
Closed
+$0.09 realized
Big Game MVP
Kenneth Walker III
NO
Closed
-$2.70 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
BAILE INOLVIDABLE
NO
Closed
+$0.31 realized
Big Game MVP
Drake Maye
NO
Closed
+$0.81 realized
Big Game: Octopus?
Will there be an octopus?
NO
Closed
+$0.13 realized
Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points
Will the total points be odd?
NO
Closed
+$1.61 realized
Big Game: Coin Toss
Heads?
YES
Closed
+$1.50 realized
Big Game MVP
Stefon Diggs
NO
Closed
+$53.96 realized
Big Game: First Team To Score
Seattle Seahawks score first?
NO
Closed
-$1.00 realized
Big Game: Scorigami?
Will the final score be a scorigami?
NO
Closed
+$0.18 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
Titi Me Pregunto
YES
Closed
+$0.78 realized
Big Game: Overtime?
Will Super Bowl LX go to overtime?
NO
Closed
+$0.22 realized
Big Game MVP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
NO
Closed
+$7.96 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
NUEVAYOL
YES
Closed
-$0.28 realized
Big Game MVP
Sam Darnold
NO
Closed
+$0.00 realized
Big Game MVP
Rashid Shaheed
NO
Closed
+$87.69 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Orange
NO
Closed
+$0.60 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Purple
NO
Closed
+$0.17 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
LA MUDANZA
YES
Closed
+$0.07 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Perplexity
YES
Closed
-$0.58 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
I Like It
NO
Closed
+$0.60 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Donald Trump
NO
Closed
+$0.06 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Robinhood
YES
Closed
-$0.87 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Green/Yellow
YES
Closed
+$1.36 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
DeepSeek
NO
Closed
+$0.02 realized
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem?
Will a player or coach cry during the anthem?
YES
Closed
-$1.86 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
LeBron James
YES
Closed
-$1.46 realized
Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?
Will the coin toss winner also win the game?
YES
Closed
-$1.50 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Nvidia
NO
Closed
+$13.27 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
DAKITI
YES
Closed
+$8.74 realized
Big Game: Big Man TD?
Will a big man score a touchdown?
NO
Closed
+$0.27 realized
Big Game: Safety?
Will there be a safety in Super Bowl LX?
YES
Closed
-$0.17 realized
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE"?
NO
Closed
+$0.23 realized
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
MONACO
NO
Closed
+$12.40 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Safaera
YES
Closed
+$5.50 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Apple
YES
Closed
+$6.76 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Red/Pink
YES
Closed
+$0.04 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Mahomes
YES
Closed
+$0.57 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Neverita
YES
Closed
+$1.50 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Sam Altman
NO
Closed
+$2.60 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Coinbase
NO
Closed
+$0.47 realized
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
Me Porto Bonito
YES
Closed
+$2.96 realized
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
Blue
NO
Closed
+$3.89 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Taylor Swift
NO
Closed
+$6.53 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
X / xAI
NO
Closed
+$10.30 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Jeff Bezos
NO
Closed
+$5.48 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Elon Musk
YES
Closed
+$3.01 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Now here's a guy
YES
Closed
-$1.86 realized
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
Bill Belichick
YES
Closed
+$1.20 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Crypto
NO
Closed
+$8.75 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
ICE / Border Patrol
NO
Closed
+$4.18 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Polymarket
NO
Closed
+$6.75 realized
What will be said during the Big Game?
Trump
NO
Closed
+$0.82 realized
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds
Under 119.5 seconds?
NO
Closed
-$1.00 realized
Big Game Champion 2026
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX?
YES
Closed
+$0.48 realized
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game?
Will Bad Bunny wear a dress or skirt?
NO
Closed
+$0.46 realized
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
Allstate
YES
Closed
+$1.56 realized
Recent Comments
Initial Jobless Claims: Week Ending Feb 7
33d ago
NO >=225k at 32.29% overprices tail risk. DOL weather attribution explicit + continuing claims flat (no structural deterioration) + historical reversion (2014: 348k→302k, 2021: 861k→730k in 1wk) + Bloomberg consensus 218-222k. Seasonal adjustment filters 1-week spikes per 10yr model. Expecting 215-220k tomorrow. Fair 28-30%.
56
YES
Will Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
33d ago
Canada 2nd golds at 19.99% undervalued vs fundamentals. EV: (0.73 women's hockey + 0.468 men's hockey) = 1.2 base. Add Stellato-Dudek pairs (2023 world champ, age 40 comeback), Kingsbury moguls (2×Olympic gold + 13 Worlds = GOAT), short track 5000m relay (Beijing defenders). Historical 2010-18: 10.25 avg. Path to 8-10 clear. Fair 20-24%. Bought YES $28.
56
YES
Will Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
33d ago
Canada 2nd place at 5.35% is structural mispricing. Base case: Women's hockey 73%×1 + Men's hockey 46.8%×1 = 1.2 expected golds. High-confidence adds: Stellato-Dudek pairs (defending world champ), Kingsbury moguls (dominant 2010-2022), Short track 5000m relay (Beijing gold). Medium-confidence: Parrot big air, Bloemen 5000m speed skating. Path to 8-10 golds is clear. With USA/Germany competing for 2nd, Canada has 10-15% true probability, not 5%.
Recent Trades
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
bought
28
YES
Will Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
@ 379¢
$106.12
33d ago
Winter Olympics 2026: 2nd Most Gold Medals
bought
28
YES
Will Canada finish 2nd in gold medals?
@ 1581¢
$442.79
33d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Trump
@ 70¢
$2.11
35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Polymarket
@ 303¢
$9.08
35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3
NO
ICE / Border Patrol
@ 202¢
$6.07
35d ago
What will be said during the Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Crypto
@ 373¢
$11.18
35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
YES
Bill Belichick
@ 90¢
$2.69
35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
YES
Elon Musk
@ 155¢
$4.64
35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Jeff Bezos
@ 255¢
$7.65
35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
NO
X / xAI
@ 425¢
$12.74
35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Taylor Swift
@ 289¢
$8.68
35d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3
NO
Blue
@ 203¢
$6.08
35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3
YES
Me Porto Bonito
@ 159¢
$4.78
35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Coinbase
@ 34¢
$1.02
35d ago
Who will attend the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
NO
Sam Altman
@ 155¢
$4.66
35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3
YES
Neverita
@ 99¢
$2.96
35d ago
Big Game: Gatorade Shower Color
sold
3
YES
Red/Pink
@ 9¢
$0.27
35d ago
Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Big Game?
sold
3
YES
Apple
@ 301¢
$9.04
35d ago
What songs will be played at the 2026 Big Game halftime show?
sold
3
YES
Safaera
@ 251¢
$7.51
35d ago
First song at 2026 Big Game Halftime Show?
sold
3
NO
MONACO
@ 503¢
$15.09
35d ago
PALACEFATE
Recent Comments