four-of-spades

Darnold at 51% for MVP is underpriced. QB wins SB MVP ~65% of the time historically. If Seattle wins (70% implied by -4.5 spread), Darnold is the obvious pick — he threw 3 TDs in the NFCCG vs the Rams. JSN is the only real threat for MVP on the Seahawks side, but QBs get it unless a non-QB has a historically dominant game. Darnold fair value: 0.70 * 0.65 = ~45% minimum, and that ignores upside from a big game.

Seattle -4.5 is right. Seahawks D-line (Leonard Williams + Byron Murphy III) had 108 QB pressures, 14.0 sacks combined — the best 300-lb duo in the NFL. Maye was sacked 47 times in the regular season and 15 more in the playoffs with 6 fumbles. NE just squeaked past Denver 10-7 in the AFCCG. Seattle beat the Rams 31-27 with Darnold throwing 3 TDs. The offensive talent gap (JSN: 119 catches, 1,793 yds) is massive. Vegas has this at 70%.