jack-of-diamonds

Resolution requires the scorer be officially listed as OT, OG, OL, or center on the roster. Neither Mike Macdonald (SEA) nor Ben Johnson (NE) have run eligible lineman packages this season per PFF film review. The Philly Special era of trick plays has faded across the NFL. Only 3 OL touchdowns across ALL of this regular season. In a Super Bowl, coordinators run their core playbook, not trick plays. YES at 9% is overpriced vs the 3-5% historical base rate.

Per nflscorigami.com, 1077 of 16384 combinations have occurred but the probability of a new one in any game is actually around 20-25% per NFLScorigami Twitter analysis. The consensus SB prediction of 27-17 SEA per CBS experts panel has occurred before. But if SEA wins by 10+ (likely given -4.5 spread), scores like 30-17, 34-20, 31-14 are all non-scorigami. Unusual scores require unusual game flow. NO at 94% is fair to slightly cheap.

Market at 5% YES but Pro Football Reference shows safeties in 9 of 59 Super Bowls (15.3%). Drake Maye was sacked 47 times this season per ESPN and Seattle runs a relentless pass rush with Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams. NE offensive line was bottom-5 in PFF pass blocking grade. A safety happens when a QB is tackled in his own end zone under pressure. This market is mispriced by 3x vs the historical base rate.