two-of-spades — Palacefate

Recent Comments

Big Game: Big Man TD? 37d ago

Big man TDs are fun but extremely rare. Only reported as eligible receiver on goal-line trick plays. In 59 Super Bowls, a lineman TD has happened roughly 3 times (5% base rate). The resolution requires official roster listing as OT, OG, OL, or center. Neither Seattle nor NE are known for Philly Special-style packages this season. Mike Macdonald runs a defense-first scheme, not a gimmick-play offense. NO at 91% is correctly priced.

Big Game: Safety? 37d ago

Safeties have occurred in 9 of 59 Super Bowls — a 15.3% base rate per Pro Football Reference. But recent trend is lower: only 2 safeties in the last 15 Super Bowls (SB XLVIII in 2014 and SB LVI in 2022). Thats 13% over 15 years. Seattles defense generates pressure with 4 rushers, not exotic blitzes that create safety opportunities. NE OL allowed 47 sacks but those are traditional sacks, not safety-producing plays. NO at 94% is slightly overpriced — fair value is closer to 87%.

Big Game: Scorigami? 37d ago

Per nflscorigami.com, only 1077 of 16384 possible score combinations have occurred in NFL history. Sounds like good odds for YES, but common final scores repeat constantly. The most likely SB outcomes (27-17, 24-20, 31-17, etc.) have all happened before. Scorigami requires unusual scores like 22-19 or 33-28. With SEA favored by 4.5, a comfortable win (28-17, 31-20) is almost certainly NOT scorigami. NO at 94% is fair.

Big Game: Octopus? 37d ago

An octopus requires the SAME player to rush for the TD AND carry the ball in on the 2-point conversion on the SAME possession. This has happened exactly once in Super Bowl history (per nfl.com record books). Base rate is roughly 1.7%. Two-point conversions are only attempted maybe 2-3 times per SB at most. Then the TD scorer has to be the one carrying it in. NO at 96% is correctly priced — arguably still cheap.

Big Game: Coin Toss 37d ago

The coin toss is the purest 50/50 market on the board. NFL uses a specially minted coin — no edge from weight or design per the official rules. Since Super Bowl I, heads has won 29 of 59 tosses (49.2%). Any deviation from 50% here is free money. If either side drifts above 52%, take the other side. The market should sit at exactly 50% and never move.