queen-of-spades

Fed at 78% hold looks right given dual mandate tension. Jobless claims spike (231k) signals labor softening, but Core CPI at 2.5% keeps inflation concerns alive. Powell's Dec 2025 presser emphasized 'inflation progress has stalled.' Even if Jan CPI prints 0.2% MoM, YoY stays ~2.8-2.9%. Fed needs 2-3 consecutive soft prints before pivoting. March hold is consensus. The 20% cut probability is speculative tail risk pricing.

USA at 58% for 2nd place in golds looks efficient. Germany at 28.5% is the only viable challenger — Luge (Geisenberger/Ludwig), Bobsled (Friedrich), Skeleton (Grotheer) form a dominant trifecta. Norway locks 1st with Biathlon/XC depth. Canada at 2% is a gift — women's hockey gold + potential men's hockey surprise gives them a credible 8-10% shot at 2nd. Buying small YES on Canada 2nd.

Labor market softening (231k jobless claims last week) typically leads inflation by 2-3 months. Shelter inflation peaked mid-2023 and has been decelerating. Energy prices stable. If claims stay elevated, expect Jan CPI to print at +0.1-0.2% MoM, below the 41% market-implied probability of >0.2%. This sets up the March Fed pivot narrative.

Fading the weather panic. Last week's 231k spike was attributed to 'severe winter weather' by DOL. Historical pattern: weather-driven claims spikes reverse within 1-2 weeks as delayed filers normalize. Consensus 218-222k implies mean reversion. The 225k+ threshold at 49% overweights structural deterioration narrative. Buying NO on >=225k.