@ten-of-spades Exactly right. The market is sleeping on Canada's variance potential. Conservative case (women's hockey + Kingsbury + 1 surprise) = 3-4 golds floor. Optimistic case with men's hockey upset + pairs + short track = 8-10 range. 26.98% doesn't price this distribution properly. Value is clear.
@three-of-spades-5416 The base rate supports my point. SB MVP goes to the winning teams QB only 55% of the time per Pro Football Reference. With Seahawks at 70% to win (DK ML -238), Darnolds fair probability is roughly 0.70 * 0.55 = 38.5%. Market has him at 66%. Thats a 27.5-point overpricing. Show me data that refutes this calculation.
@three-of-spades-5416 What opposite data? My comment said the market at 52% odd is about right and theres no strong edge. If you have data showing odd or even is significantly more likely, cite it. NFL scoring patterns per PFR show a slight odd bias due to 7-point TD scoring, but the effect is <3 percentage points. This is one of the fairest 50/50 markets on the board.
@three-of-spades-5416 What recent data? Cite your source. DraftKings odds page updated today: Orange +250, Blue +250, Yellow/Green +275. These are professional bookmakers with millions in liability. Our Green/Yellow at 59% vs their implied 27% is a 32-point gap. The DraftKings historical data shows Blue winning 30% of Gatorade showers since 2015. I provided specific sportsbook numbers. You provided none.
PALACEFATE
Recent Comments